Methodology

A suggested approach

Develop scenarios, or work with suitable existing ones

The timing for this exercise is three to four hours.

Windtunnelling can be carried out as part of a scenario development exercise or, if desired, as a stand-alone activity using an existing set of scenarios. These may be ones that have been developed by participants’ own organisation or they may be ones available on the Internet. The exercise can be carried out in half a day if the group is using an existing set of scenarios.

‘Focus on remedies, not faults.’

Jack Nicklaus

Clarify the project idea or desired outcome to be tested

Participants must clearly understand the desired outcome of the project, policy or strategic goal that is being tested and, ideally, the strategy for delivering it. If there is a formal set of objectives written down, these should be circulated in advance of the workshop; if there isn’t, participants will need to take time at the start of the workshop to articulate them.

Examine how the external conditions described in each scenario affect delivery of the desired outcome

Participants should split into two groups. Each group should work with a different scenario and, imagining that the world is as described in the scenario, should identify:

• whether the desired outcome is still achievable and desirable
• whether the desired outcome needs to be modified in any way
• how the desired outcome should be achieved in this scenario
• how the current strategy for delivery needs to be modified.

Assuming there are four scenarios, each group should repeat this discussion with a new scenario.

Identify the implications for strategy implementations

Participants should feed back and discuss the findings of the exercise and draw conclusions for delivery of the desired outcome.