FAQs

Here we address some of the questions that are on the minds of people who are new to futures and that we sometimes encounter in our work within Foresight and the Horizon Scanning Centre.

How do I determine which technique is right for me?

There is no right or wrong technique for all occasions. Choosing a technique should, at a minimum, be based on the aims of the study, the type of output you desire, the resources available and the capabilities of the team and participants. In Exploring the future: Tools for strategic futures thinking, we have categorised each technique on a number of attributes, to help you to consider their value to you, under different circumstances. These are:

• the relationship of the technique to strategy
• the relationship of the technique to six stages of Horizon Scanning
• the expertise required
• the time horizon concerned.

There are other variables to consider, but these should help you on your way.

There are a lot of futures terms that are new to me. How do I separate jargon from the more important concepts?

It is important to remember that the futures space is a relatively new and largely unregulated industry. This means that there is some ambiguity in terms. Furthermore, techniques are regularly personalised for specific needs or projects. All of this is fine and probably appropriate for an industry that deals with uncertainties and the unknown. In fact, because of uncertainties and the unknown subject matter, futures tools need to be different from tools that might be more familiar to strategists, such as SWOT. But it doesn’t help when you are still learning!

A good way to start to explore futures, and this toolkit, is to spend a little time getting a quick overview of the techniques. You can then explore them in more depth when you have time – or when opportunities arrive for you to participate in futures exercises or training.

This toolkit presents each technique briefly in two or three bullet points, followed by a paragraph or two of fuller description. Finally, we give some practical advice on methodology and putting the technique into practice.

What else can I read about futures?

The toolkit lists specific reading material under the Still Interested? heading on each technique. We’ve also compiled a list of general reading material here.

Why does this toolkit stand out from others?

We have tried to make this toolkit informative, engaging and easy to use, describing the tools in increasing depth to serve users of all levels.

The ability to locate techniques and case studies via their attributes, the use of futurists’ audio recording and ease of navigation enhance the user experience. We’ve also embraced some interesting, related topics that for users to investigate like cool hunting and the role of the futurist.

We think that this toolkit is a good introduction to futures work, but, Exploring the Future: Tools for strategic futures thinking, is just our thoughts on the subject. There are many other views on futures work. We list some other toolkits for your reference. We also list a number of other sources on the Horizon Scanning Centre web site.

How far can I look into the future and still achieve credible results?

This depends on the level of uncertainty and amount of evidence that you are willing to live with. The list of case studies in this toolkit are classified as short, medium or long term.

Looking forward less than 20 years might be considered short term, 20-40 years is medium-term and beyond 40 years is long-term. But the reality is that these lines of demarcation are blurred.

How far you can look into the future also depends – to a degree – on the technique you choose. Some techniques like Visioning and State of science reviews, are good for longer term thinking. Others such as Review of abstracts are normally used over a shorter term.

If futures work is not about prediction, then what is it for?

Futures thinking allows participants to look at how current trends and developments might play out over the short, medium and long term future. Those involved can arrive at various informed views on how things might develop and can think about what they could do to achieve or sustain success.

Futures thinking helps people to anticipate change and to rehearse their response to it. Ultimately, futures work helps participants to think about the future so that they can make better decisions today.

If we take the time, and use the right tools, to try to appreciate how the future could unfold, then we can make decisions today that are more likely to succeed in the future. We can also prepare ourselves with rich ‘memories of the future’, so that we recognise changes and are prepared to respond appropriately.